The cellulosic ethanol industry is at a critical development stage; there are technology developers who are taking stock of the lessons learnt during the development of their first plants, and several more are constructing or planning their first plant. E4tech has undertaken a study on behalf of the European cellulosic ethanol industry to understand the deployment potential of the technology in the coming decade. This is important to determine the impact the industry can have on renewable energy use in the transport sector and its decarbonisation to 2030 and beyond.
The study developed two deployment scenarios for the EU based on detailed bottom up assumptions on the number of technology developers, plant development timelines, plant capacity, utilisation rates, and the rate at which new projects can be initiated. It also looked at what cost cellulosic ethanol could be produced. Depending on EU demand in 2030, the scenarios could correspond to a 4-5.6% blend of cellulosic ethanol in gasoline, by volume, and a 0.6-0.8% contribution to road and rail transport energy demand in 2030.
Read more in our report here…
Update (04/12/2017): an earlier version of this report, dated October 2017, has been distributed previously. The only difference with the current (December 2017) version is the addition of a clarification for one of the datapoints.