EU 2030 Road Transport Decarbonisation Scenario Analysis

Client: Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association
The EU suggests a 40% EU GHG emission target in 2030, but provides no specific transport sector target which creates significant uncertainty over actions needed to decarbonise road-transport post 2020. Our client wanted to understand road transport decarbonisation options under different scenarios to inform policy development. Based on the model used for the EU 2030 Auto-Fuel roadmap we recommended that a higher ‘FQD’ target would contribute significantly to GHG savings and would maintain biofuels as an option for deep carbonisation in the long-term. Three variations of an ‘FQD’ were modelled post-2020 to understand the implications of different policy scenarios on TTW GHG emission savings in the EU. We extended the EU Auto-Fuel model that combines a biofuel supply potential model with a vehicle fleet model to estimate the biofuel uptake potential in the EU market, to understand the GHG savings due to a net reduction in energy demand and the use of biofuels. The net reduction in energy demand due to vehicle efficiency targets leads to the largest GHG savings, but a higher FQD target would increase the GHG savings from biofuels considerably in 2030. The work was launched at a stakeholder engagement event in Brussels and is used by UNICA to objectively inform EU transport policy development post 2020.

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