The cellulosic ethanol industry is at a critical development stage: there are technology developers who are taking stock of the lessons learnt during the development of their first plants, and several more are constructing or planning their first plant.
This report develops two deployment scenarios for the EU based on detailed bottom up assumptions on the number of technology developers, plant development timelines, plant capacity, utilisation rates, the rate at which new projects can be initiated, and takes into consideration the availability of project finance. It also considers at what cost cellulosic ethanol could be produced.
The two scenarios (which assume a favourable policy environment) see total EU production capacity for cellulosic ethanol increase from 31 million litres in 2017 to 2.75 billion litres in 2030 in the central scenario, and 3.8 billion litres in the more ambitious scenario. Depending on EU energy demand in 2030, this could equate to a 4-5.6% blend of cellulosic ethanol in gasoline, by volume, in 2030, and 0.6-0.8% of road and rail transport energy demand in 2030.